Njengoba “Inkathi Yombiko Wonyaka” isizophela ngo-April 30, izinkampani ezisohlwini lwe-A-share ngokungathandi noma ngokungananazi zanikeza imibiko yonyaka ka-2021.Embonini ye-photovoltaic, i-2021 yanele ukuthi iqoshwe emlandweni we-photovoltaics, ngoba imincintiswano embonini yemboni yaqala ukungena esiteji esimhlophe-hot ngo-2021. Sekukonke, uchungechunge lwemboni ye-PV luqukethe izingxenye eziyinhloko ezifana ne-silicon, i-silicon. ama-wafers, amaseli namamojula, kanye nezingxenye zesibili ezifana nezinto ezisizayo ze-PV kanye nemishini ye-PV.
"I-grid parity" yaqashelwa ukukhiqiza amandla e-photovoltaic osekuqhutshwe iminyaka engaphezu kweshumi ezitshalweni zamandla we-photovoltaic esibulalayo, okubuye kubeke phambili izidingo eziqinile zezindleko zochungechunge lwemboni ye-photovoltaic.
Engxenyeni ye-silicon yochungechunge lwezimboni phezulu nomfula, kunesidingo esikhulu samandla aluhlaza ngenxa yokungathathi hlangothi kwe-carbon, okwenza amanani e-silicon anwetshwa ngesivinini esiphansi kakhulu akhuphuke kakhulu, ngaleyo ndlela abangele umthelela omkhulu ekusabalaliseni inzuzo kwasekuqaleni kochungechunge lwemboni. .
Engxenyeni ye-silicon wafer, amandla amasha amawafa e-silicon afana ne-Shangji Automation abekela inselele abakhiqizi be-silicon bewafer bendabuko;engxenyeni yeseli, amaseli ohlobo lwe-N aqala ukushintsha amaseli ohlobo lwe-P.
Zonke lezi zenzakalo ezihlangene zingenza abatshalizimali bazizwe bedidekile.Kodwa ekupheleni kwemibiko yonyaka, singathola amazwibela ezinzuzo nokulahlekelwa kwenkampani ngayinye ye-PV ngedatha yezezimali.
Lokhu okuthunyelwe kuzobuyekeza imiphumela yaminyaka yonke yenqwaba yezinkampani ze-PV futhi kuhlukanise idatha eyisisekelo yezezimali ibe yizigaba ezahlukahlukene zochungechunge lwemboni ngomzamo wokuphendula le mibuzo emibili elandelayo:
1. Imaphi amasegimenti ochungechunge lwemboni ye-PV abone inzuzo ngo-2021?
2. Izosatshalaliswa kanjani inzuzo yochungechunge lwemboni ye-PV esikhathini esizayo?Imaphi amasegimenti afanele isakhiwo?
Inzuzo enkulu ye-silicon ikhuthaza ukuthuthukiswa kwama-wafers e-silicon, kodwa amaseli abone ibhizinisi elihamba kancane
Ezingxenyeni eziyinhloko zochungechunge lwemboni ye-PV, sikhethe izinkampani ze-PV ezisohlwini ezinokudalulwa kwedatha yezezimali okucacile kwezingxenye zebhizinisi ze-silicon - wafer - cell - module, futhi siqhathanise imali engenayo kanye ne-gross margin enesisindo yezingxenye ezahlukene zebhizinisi zenkampani ngayinye. , ukuze kuboniswe ngokucacile izinguquko zenzuzo zengxenye ngayinye yochungechunge lwemboni ye-PV.
Izinga lokukhula kwemali engenayo yezingxenye eziyinhloko zochungechunge lwemboni ye-PV liphezulu kunezinga lokukhula komkhakha.Ngokwedatha ye-CPIA, umthamo womhlaba omusha ofakiwe we-PV wawucishe ube ngu-170GW ngo-2021, okuwukukhuphuka ngo-23% unyaka nonyaka, kuyilapho izinga lokukhula kwemali engenayo le-silicon/wafer/cell/module lalingu-171.2%/70.4%/62.8% / 40.5% ngokulandelanayo, esimweni sokuncipha.
Ngokombono we-gross margin, inani lokuthengisa elimaphakathi le-silicon likhuphuke lisuka ku-78,900/ton ngo-2020 laya ku-193,000/ton ngo-2021. Ukuzuza ekwenyukeni kwentengo okubalulekile, i-gross margin ye-silicon inyuke kakhulu isuka ku-30.36% ngo-2020 yaya ku-64. 2021.
Ingxenye ye-wafer ibonise ukuqina okuqinile, namamajini aphelele asele cishe ku-24% kule minyaka emithathu edlule, naphezu kokukhuphuka okubukhali kwezindleko ze-silicon.Kunezizathu ezimbili eziyinhloko zemajini ephelele ezinzile yengxenye yamawafa: Okokuqala, iwafa isesimweni esiqinile ochungechungeni lwemboni futhi inamandla aqinile okuxoxisana ngabakhiqizi bamaseli angezansi, okungasusa iningi lengcindezi yezindleko.Okwesibili, i-Zhonghuan Semiconductor, okungenye yohlangothi olubalulekile oluphumayo lwabakhiqizi be-silicon wafers, ithuthukise kakhulu inzuzo yayo ngemuva kokuphothulwa kwenguquko eyingxubevange nokukhuthazwa kwama-silicon wafers angama-210, ngaleyo ndlela ibambe iqhaza lokuzinzisa emaphethelweni aphelele ale ngxenye.
Iseli kanye nemojula yizisulu zangempela zegagasi lamanje lokunyuka kwentengo ye-silicon.I-gross ye-cell yehla isuka ku-14.47% yaya ku-7.46%, kuyilapho i-gross yemojuli yehla isuka ku-17.24% yaya ku-12.86%.
Isizathu sokusebenza kangcono kwe-gross margin yengxenye yemojuli uma kuqhathaniswa nengxenye yeseli ukuthi izinkampani zamamojula ayinhloko zonke ziyizinkampani ezihlanganisiwe futhi azinabo abaphakathi ukuze zithole umehluko, ngakho zimelana kakhulu nengcindezi.I-Aikosolar, i-Tongwei nezinye izinkampani zamaselula zidinga ukuthenga ama-wafers e-silicon kwezinye izinkampani, ngakho-ke amamajini abo enzuzo ngokusobala ayampintsha.
Okokugcina, kusukela ku-gross profit (imali engenayo yokusebenza * gross margin) izinguquko, igebe lesiphetho phakathi kwezigaba ezahlukene ze-photovoltaic industry chain libonakala nakakhulu.
Ngo-2021,inzuzo enkulu yengxenye ye-silicon ikhule cishe ngama-472%, kanti inzuzo yonke yengxenye yamaseli yehle ngo-16.13%.
Ngaphezu kwalokho, singabona ukuthi nakuba umkhawulo we-gross wengxenye ye-wafer ungashintshile, inzuzo enkulu ikhuphuke cishe ngama-70%.Eqinisweni, uma sikubheka ngombono wenzuzo, ama-wafers e-silicon empeleni ayazuza ekukhuphukeni kwentengo ye-silicon.
Amamajini ezinto ezisizayo ze-Photovoltaic zonakalisiwe, kodwa abathengisi bemishini bahlala beqinile
Samukela indlela efanayo ezintweni ezisizayo kanye nemishini ye-photovoltaic industry chain.Ezinkampanini ezisohlwini ze-photovoltaic, sikhethe amabhidi afanelekile, futhi sahlaziya isimo senzuzo sezigaba ezihambisanayo.
Inkampani ngayinye ibone ukwehla kwe-gross margin yengxenye yezinto ezisizayo ze-photovoltaic, kodwa bonke bangazuza inzuzo.Sekukonke, ingilazi ye-PV nama-inverters ahlupheke ngenxa yokwanda kwemali engenayo ngaphandle kokwandisa inzuzo kakhulu, kuyilapho izinga lokukhula kwenzuzo yefilimu ye-PV lalihle kakhulu.
Idatha yezezimali yomthengisi ngamunye wezisetshenziswa izinzile kakhulu engxenyeni yemishini ye-PV.Ngokwamanani aphelele, imajini ephelele enesisindo yomthengisi ngamunye wemishini inyuke isuka ku-33.98% ngo-2020 yaya ku-34.54% ngo-2021, cishe ayizange ithintwe izingxabano ezihlukahlukene esigabeni esikhulu se-PV.Mayelana nemali engenayo, imali engenayo yokusebenza iyonke yabathengisi bemishini abayisishiyagalombili bebonke nayo inyuke ngo-40%.
Ukusebenza kukonke kochungechunge lwemboni ye-PV eduze nomfula okhuphukayo we-silicon nengxenye yenzuzo yengxenye ye-wafer muhle uma kuqhathaniswa ngo-2021, kuyilapho ingxenye yeseli engezansi nengxenye yemojuli ingaphansi kwezidingo zezindleko eziqinile zesiteshi sikagesi, ngaleyo ndlela zehlise inzuzo.
Izinto ezisizayo ze-Photovoltaic njengama-inverters, ifilimu ye-photovoltaic, nengilazi ye-photovoltaic ziqondiswe kumakhasimende eketanga lemboni ezansi nomfula, ngakho inzuzo ngo-2021 yathinteka ngamazinga ahlukahlukene.
Yiziphi izinguquko ezizokwenzeka embonini ye-PV esikhathini esizayo?
Intengo ye-silicon ekhuphuka phezulu iyisizathu esiyinhloko sezinguquko zephethini yokusabalalisa inzuzo yochungechunge lwemboni ye-PV ngo-2021. Ngakho-ke, izintengo ze-silicon zizokwehla nini ngokuzayo nokuthi yiziphi izinguquko ezizokwenzeka ochungechungeni lwemboni ye-PV ngemuva kokuthi ukwehla sekugxilwe kuzo. yokunaka kwabatshalizimali.
1. Ukwahlulela kwentengo ye-silicon: Inani elimaphakathi lihlala liphezulu ngo-2022, futhi liqala ukwehla ngo-2023.
Ngokusho kwedatha ye-ZJSC, umthamo osebenzayo we-silicon emhlabeni wonke ngo-2022 ungamathani angama-840,000, okusho ukukhula konyaka nonyaka okungama-50% futhi angasekela cishe u-294GW wesidingo se-silicon wafer.Uma sicabangela isilinganiso sokwabiwa komthamo ongu-1.2, amandla e-silicon asebenzayo angamathani angu-840,000 ngo-2022 angahlangabezana cishe no-245GW womthamo we-PV ofakiwe.
2. Ingxenye ye-Silicon wafer kulindeleke ukuthi iqale impi yentengo ngo-2023-2024.
Njengoba sazi ekubuyekezweni kwangaphambilini kuka-2021, izinkampani ze-silicon wafer empeleni ziyazuza kuleli gagasi lokwenyuka kwamanani e-silicon.Uma izintengo ze-silicon zehla ngokuzayo, izinkampani zama-wafer nakanjani zizokwehlisa amanani azo ama-wafer ngenxa yengcindezi evela kontanga namasegimenti angezansi komfula, futhi ngisho noma amamajini aphelele ehlala efana noma enyuka, inzuzo yonke nge-GW ngayinye izokwehla.
3. Amaseli namamojula azolulama enkingeni ngo-2023.
Njengoba “isisulu” esikhulu kunazo zonke segagasi lamanje lentengo ye-silicon sikhuphuka, izinkampani zamaseli nemojula zathwala buthule izindleko zayo yonke ingcindezi yeketanga lemboni ngokungangabazeki abaningi banethemba lokuthi amanani e-silicon ayehla.
Isimo sonke sochungechunge lwemboni ye-PV ngo-2022 sizofana nesika-2021, futhi lapho umthamo we-silicon ukhishwa ngokugcwele ngo-2023, izingxenye ze-silicon ne-wafer cishe zizobhekana nempi yentengo, kuyilapho inzuzo yemodyuli ephansi kanye neseli. izingxenye zizoqala ukuvela.Ngakho-ke, izinkampani zamaseli, amamojula kanye nokuhlanganisa ochungechungeni lwamanje lwemboni ye-PV zizofaneleka kakhulu ukunakwa.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jun-10-2022